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AISTA Raises Sugar Output Estimate Marginally To 32 MT For 2023-24 Season

AISTA has raised its estimate for India's sugar production in the 2023-24 season to 32 million tonnes, a slight increase of 400,000 tonnes.

Sugar trade body AISTA on Monday revised the country’s sugar production upward by 4,00,000 tonne to 32 million tonne for the 2023-24 season (October-September) on the rise in production in Maharashtra and Karnataka

The estimated net domestic sugar production excludes the diversion of sucrose for ethanol production, it said in a statement.

With an estimated sugar production of 32 million tonne and an opening stock of 5.7 million tonne, the availability of sugar in the country is likely to be 37.7 million tonne, which is higher than the estimated domestic consumption of 29 million tonne, it added.

In the previous 2022-23 season, sugar production was 32.9 million tonne. According to the All India Sugar Trade Association Chairman Praful Vithalani, the crop committee has revised sugar production estimates marginally from 31.6 million tonne to 32 million tonne for the 2023-24 season. Sugar production in Maharashtra is estimated to increase by 1.2 million tonne but decrease by almost the same 1.1 million tonne quantity in Uttar Pradesh.

Similarly, the estimated decline of 3 million tonne in Tamil Nadu is likely to be compensated by a gain of 0.4 million tonne in Karnataka, he said. In the remaining states, the production estimates are almost the same as the first estimates. “However, the change in state-wise production scenario is likely to affect trade flow in sugar trade with more sugar going from surplus Maharasthra to sugar deficient states,” Vithalani said. As per the second estimate, sugar production in Maharashtra — the country’s largest sugar producing state — is estimated to increase marginally to 10.8 million tonne for 2023-24 season, as against 10.7 million tonne in the previous season.

However, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh — the country’s second largest producing state — is estimated to decline slightly to 10.6 million tonne from 10.7 million tonne last season. Similarly in the country’s third largest sugar producing state of Karnataka, the production has been revised upward but still remains lower at 5.1 million tonne in 2023-24, as against 5.6 million tonne in the previous season.

According to AISTA, India has 2-2.5 million tonne of additional closing stock than required. Here, two windows get open to allow exports of sugar or ethanol blending for 2024-2025 season. “The government needs to give permission of one million tonne exports by June 2024 and diversion of 1 million tonne sucrose for ethanol in the beginning of the 2024-2025 sugar season,” it added.

The closing stock of sugar would be around 8.6 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season.

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