The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) has lowered its estimate for India’s sugar production in the 2025–26 season to 28.3 million tonnes, down 4.4% from its earlier forecast of 29.6 million tonnes. The revision comes after poor weather conditions affected crop yields in major sugar-producing states.
According to AISTA, gross sugar production is expected to reach 31.5 million tonnes, but about 3.2 million tonnes will likely be diverted to ethanol production.
Even with the revised estimate, sugar output for the October–September season is still projected to be higher than the 26.2 million tonnes produced in 2024–25.
Weather Challenges in Key States
AISTA’s crop committee said the current season faced unusual weather conditions, especially in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Continuous rainfall and prolonged cloudy weather disrupted sugarcane growth during critical development stages.
Heavy rains in October particularly affected the Marathwada region of Maharashtra, causing waterlogging, limiting farm work, and putting stress on crops. Early flowering in ratoon crops also reduced productivity in some areas.
State-wise Production Estimates
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Maharashtra, India’s largest sugar producer, is now expected to produce 9.97 million tonnes, down from the earlier estimate of 10.81 million tonnes. However, this is still higher than the 8.1 million tonnes produced last season.
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In Uttar Pradesh, the country’s second-largest producer, output is expected to reach 9.1 million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 9.41 million tonnes and also below last season’s 9.3 million tonnes. AISTA said strong demand for sugarcane from jaggery producers reduced the supply of cane to sugar mills.
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In Karnataka, production is estimated at 4.8 million tonnes, down from 4.91 million tonnes, though still higher than 4.3 million tonnes produced in 2024–25.
AISTA also noted that sugar recovery rates in Uttar Pradesh improved slightly, but overall crop yields remain a concern.
Meanwhile, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has also reduced its sugar production forecast for 2025–26, although it still expects output to be higher than last season.
