India is expected to produce less sugar this year than earlier projected, as heavy rainfall in key producing states has reduced sugarcane yields, farmers and trade officials said. The lower output could restrict exports from the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Traders say the country may find it difficult to export even half of its allocated quota. This could support global sugar prices, which are currently hovering near five-year lows, while also pushing up domestic prices.
According to internal estimates from five trade houses, India’s sugar production for the 2025/26 marketing year ending in September is likely to be between 28.5 million and 29 million metric tons.
However, the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has projected a higher output of 30.95 million tons for the year.
“Cane yields have declined across all major producing states — from Maharashtra and Karnataka to Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. That’s pulling down this season’s production estimates,” said Rahil Shaikh, Managing Director of Mumbai-based MEIR Commodities India.
