Maharashtra's sugar production is projected to decline to 90.18 lakh tonnes in the 2026-27 crushing season, nearly nine lakh tonnes lower than the previous season, according to a revised estimate by the state sugar commissionerate. The forecast has been reduced from the earlier projection of 102.5 lakh tonnes following inadequate rainfall, rising temperatures and concerns over deteriorating sugarcane quality.
Maharashtra produced more than 99 lakh tonnes of sugar during the 2025-26 season, making it the country's leading sugar-producing state. State Sugar Commissioner Sanjay Kolte confirmed that the revised estimate was prepared using sugarcane availability data up to August. Officials are compiling September data, which could lead to minor changes in the production forecast.
According to the revised projection, Maharashtra is expected to produce approximately 1,127 lakh tonnes of sugarcane in 2026-27, with cultivation spread across more than 15.43 lakh hectares. Average sugarcane yield is estimated at 74 tonnes per hectare, while the sugar recovery rate is projected at 9.5%. In comparison, the state produced around 1,316 lakh tonnes of sugarcane across more than 16 lakh hectares in 2025-26, with an average yield of 95 tonnes per hectare.
The lower production outlook comes amid rising sugar prices in Maharashtra's markets and concerns about domestic supply during the upcoming season. The Centre has advanced the start of the sugarcane crushing season to October 15 from November 1 to help maintain adequate sugar availability during the festive period. Sources in the sugar commissionerate said the move was intended to support supplies and added that a sharp increase in domestic retail sugar prices was not anticipated.
However, the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation (MSCSFF) has cautioned that achieving the revised production target could be challenging for the state's more than 200 private and cooperative sugar mills. Federation vice-chairman Pratap Ohol said inadequate rainfall and higher temperatures had significantly affected sugarcane quality, potentially reducing sugar recovery and overall output.
Ohol also highlighted the dependence of sugarcane cultivation in several regions on sufficient rainfall for healthy crop development. Water stress and adverse climatic conditions could therefore affect both cane availability and processing efficiency.
The revised estimate underscores the impact of weather conditions on Maharashtra's sugar industry. Actual production will depend on sugarcane availability, crop quality, recovery rates and the performance of mills during the 2026-27 crushing season.
